The scoreboard
Through the end of June, the Dow was up about 8.9 percent for the year, the S&P 500 about 9.6 percent, and the small-cap Russell 2000 nearly 22 percent. The second quarter alone saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq climb roughly 14.9 and 21.4 percent, the best quarter since the recovery quarter of 2020. Numbers like that feel great and mean very little for what you should do next. (TheStreet)
July 1 itself was quieter. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.22 percent to close near 7,483, and the Nasdaq fell 0.66 percent as investors took profits in semiconductor names after a blistering first half, with Micron down more than 10 percent on the day. Meta rose almost 9 percent on news it would sell excess computing power. In other words, a normal day, some up, some down.
Why the plan does not change
A green six months is pleasant, but it is not a signal. Nobody rang a bell at the start of the year saying the second quarter would be the best since 2020, and nobody is ringing one now about the next six months. The whole reason a simple, diversified, buy-and-hold approach works is that it does not require you to guess. You capture the good stretches by being invested through them, not by predicting them.
The temptation after a strong run is to do something: pile in because it is working, or pull back because it has come too far. Both are guesses dressed up as discipline. The boring version stays the same in July as it was in January. Keep contributing on a schedule, hold broad index funds, rebalance if your mix has drifted, and let time do the compounding.
The one thing worth checking
If a strong first half has pushed one part of your portfolio well past its target, say tech or small caps ran hot, a calm rebalance back to your plan is reasonable. That is not market timing, it is maintenance, selling a sliver of what grew to top up what lagged so your risk stays where you chose it. Do it on a schedule or a threshold, not on a headline.
Everything here is a recap, not advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. The point is calmer than any forecast: the plan that survives a great quarter and a bad one is the same plan, and that is the feature, not the bug.
For the approach in one place, see Three funds and a calendar. If your mix has drifted, see Asset location, which account. This is a recap, not advice. You can see what this studio builds at jcmobileappstudio.com.
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