A recap, not financial advice. I build apps and invest in index funds, I am not a financial advisor.
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve voted 12 to 0 to raise rates a quarter point, to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, and the 10 year Treasury yield crossed 5 percent for the first time since 2007. I covered that in the September 18 finance recap. Since then, the 10 year has kept climbing.
Last Friday it closed at 5.23 percent, its highest level since June 2007. The 30 year hit 5.49 percent, its highest since 2004, and the 2 year sat at 5.16 percent. (Yahoo Finance) Fortune has pointed to the federal borrowing outlook as another reason long term rates keep rising. (Fortune)
Oil is back in the driver's seat
On Friday, oil actually fell and stocks rose after U.S. and Iranian officials talked at the U.N. General Assembly about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. (Yahoo Finance) That mood lasted one weekend.
Over the weekend, President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait within a week and restart nuclear talks in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade. He said he expects more talks this week, but that the offer did not meet his requirements on nuclear concessions. On Monday, West Texas crude jumped 4.2 percent to about $96 a barrel, Brent rose to about $108.50, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77 percent. (TheStreet)
Oil matters for yields because energy costs feed into nearly everything else, and higher inflation expectations push investors to demand more before they lend money for ten years.
The data that matters this week
- Tuesday: August job openings (JOLTS) and September consumer confidence.
- Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, along with the latest GDP reading.
- Thursday: September ISM manufacturing, a read on how factories are holding up under higher energy costs.
- Friday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: the September jobs report. (Kiplinger)
A hot PCE number or a strong jobs report could push yields higher still. A cooler reading could give bonds some breathing room.
What a higher 10 year means for your money
- Borrowing: mortgage rates tend to follow the 10 year, so this is a tough stretch to shop for a home loan.
- Saving: the upside is that cash finally earns something. High yield savings accounts, CDs, and Treasury bills pay more when rates are up.
- Bond funds: when yields rise, existing bond prices fall, so a fund like BND can dip. The flip side is that new money going in buys bonds that pay more, and over a long stretch that higher income helps make up for the price drop.
- Stocks: a 5 percent yield on a safe Treasury gives investors an alternative to stocks, which can weigh on prices, especially for growth companies.
How I am thinking about it
My plan is simple: a total U.S. stock market fund, an international fund, and a bond fund, VTI, VXUS, and BND. The whole point of a plan like that is that it does not need a new decision every time a headline hits.
Weeks like this are when I remind myself what each piece is for. VTI is for long term growth. VXUS is so I am not betting everything on one country. BND is there to steady things, and at today's yields it is paying more than it has in a long time.
It is also why I built Holdwise, my dividend tracker for buy and hold investors. Its trailing income charts show what your portfolio actually pays you over time across taxable, Roth, IRA, 401(k), and HSA accounts, which is a calmer thing to watch than a daily price chart.
Bottom line: higher rates hurt borrowers and bond prices in the short run, and help savers and future bond income. If your plan was built for the long run, this week is a good time to check it, not necessarily to change it.
Verified September 28, 2026. Market figures are from Friday September 25 and Monday September 28. A recap, not financial advice. The studio's app lineup is at jcmobileappstudio.com/apps.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Fortune, Kiplinger
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